Cuyahoga County Real Estate 'Season' Sales Trends 2000-2007

We all wonder about housing sales trends since the turn of the century. As a Realtor® I can get those stats. Real estate 'season' is typically thought to begin in April and go through August. So those are the months I've picked to study during the past seven years. Here are three neighboring communities; I'm listing total number of single family homes sold and the average selling price. (Stats from homes listed with area brokerages)

Lakewood
2000 206 $168,103
2001 214 $153,146
2002 184 $148,887
2003 226 $161,878
2004 203 $164,912
2005 209 $176,748
2006 211 $178,010
2007 173 $171,071

Rocky River

2000 101 $203,169
2001 110 $227,596
2002 95 $283,983
2003 128 $260,710
2004 108 $301,587
2005 103 $303,567
2006 102 $304,165
2007 100 $266,933

Westlake

2000 135 $288,175
2001 148 $279,843
2002 139 $283,267
2003 173 $325,431
2004 147 $320,681
2005 157 $363,994
2006 136 $336,279
2007 115 $347,144

Angie Lau did a report a few months back for News Channel Five about hot and not so hot housing markets. She said Westlake homes were a great investment and did not follow the trend of lower prices for homeowners. These stats seem to back her up. While the 2005 average sales price was higher for Westlake ($363,994), it's clear that prices basically rose over the past seven years.

The total number of homes didn't vary much in Rocky River over the seven year period. And Lakewood sales seemed to be the flatest during that time frame. The lows are not drastic in any of these communities. I'll do Cleveland's West Side tomorrow (Friday). Peace Out - 3C

Housing Trends: A Serious 2006 Federal Reserve Bank in Cleveland Study on Home Sales Trends

My last 12 months in real estate have been like a roller coaster: frustrating, sad, satisfying and busy year, all wrapped up in month-to-month cycles. I was aggravated at the media talk about housing bubbles and now declining prices. I got sad about the number of people contacting me, trying to get help with a home sale when their mortgage was not being met, and frustrated at how long they waited to get help...meaning, it was not possible for me to list their home and have them make enough money to save themselves. I was delighted to see so many young people and other first time home buyers saving money and coming in with an ethic of fiscal responsibility. It is what makes my chosen profession the best for me; never dull and different almost every day.

Some of my real estate colleagues, in the business for decades, told me that real estate is always cyclical. My own personal experience from home purchases in the '80s and then trying to sell a condo in the '90s, showed me first hand this was true. And my experiences now as a real estate professional back up these opinions.

Foreclosures and extremely high numbers of listings do have an effect on sale prices in our area. But here is a study pointed out to me on the University of Wisconsin-Madison site. They talk about two studies, but one is more recent. It was completed in 2006 by The Federal Reserve in Cleveland and talks about cycles. Here is an excerpt:

"....To understand changes in house prices, it is necessary to study the price of residential land. Data indicate that the real price of land has been marching steadily upward since 1950. If the 1998–2006 boom to house prices reflects demand for housing-related amenities, then the data on land prices argue that this boom is a continuation of earlier trends.
Relaxed credit constraints could explain the outpacing of house price appreciation to incomes. House prices can and should be expected to surge if credit constraints are unexpectedly relaxed for first-time home buyers who are credit or down-payment constrained. This surge can occur even when incomes remain constant; when credit constraints change over time, incomes and house prices should not be expected to increase at the same rate. ..."

This is a long dissertation, so you might want to grab a cup of java before you read. It's a very good read, however, for anyone who owns a home, is interested in how real estate works.

I'm never going to discount our foreclosure issues, or the change in (for the better) home sale prices sellers experienced for a few years running. The old saying is that 'real estate is local' and it surely is that. But this is a 'non-chicken little' approach...statistics! Let me know what you think. Peace Out - 3C

Housing Trends: Maybe We Can Make Saving Money to Buy A Home Sexy

I saw it in the faces of some of my clients; it may have seemed exciting to be a part of the 'gold rush mentality' of no money down purchases: ' why wait and miss the boat, buy a house now.' Meaning, why wait until you have money saved for a down payment or even closing costs!

The truth is always much less sexy, taking the form of foreclosures and sherrif sales at the bleakest end of the spectrum; and too much financial stress even at it's best. You can read a few past posts on the foreclosure issues here and here and here. You can also follow Callahan's Cleveland Diary, since Bill is keeping track, seemingly weekly, of new foreclosures filed.

Out of these dark clouds may be some better news for the future. At least that is what is being reported in Crain's Cleveland this week. Shawn Turner wrote about banks/lenders seeing an increase in the number of fixed rate and conventional loans filed, with a downturn in ARMs and No Interest, and subprime loans. The banking officials interviewed said some key things, at least according to this article:

1) People are taking to heart the negative press about sub prime loans. The good news is that people are learning they "...need to read the fine print..." (quote from Cindy Balser of KeyCorp)

2) Fifth Third Bank says it's conventional loan applications are up to 74% of all loans written, compared to conventional loans encompassing 63% for all of 2006.

Another aspect of mortgage loans to consider: if you don't put 20% down, you will be spending money that does not count towards your Principal or Interest on the loan, but will still have to come out of your pocket. This is because of PMI (Mortgage Insurance) that is 'tacked on' to your monthly loan amount if you provide a down payment of less than 20%. I looked around and of all places found an article on MSN Money. But the source is fairly good: Kiplinger. A question and answer session from a consumer looking to buy a home and get a mortgage led to a pretty concise discussion of what PMI is all about.

I am not saying no one should get a sub prime loan. But it has to be better if more people are focused on actually saving money before they decide to purchase.

Some of my 2007 clients have talked about not being sure if they will be able to stay in Cleveland and put down roots....maybe they are recently out of grad school; maybe they have moved here to accept a job transfer. Could be a lot of reasons. I encourage them to talk to their mortgage lenders about the advantages of a 20 pecent down loan, helping to build equity more quickly. It's been gratifying that a few of my clients were already doing this on their own, planning for their home purchases, saving money. The Kiplinger discussion in Money puts it this way:

"In the early years, you aren't building any equity with the mortgage payment," Eisenberg says. "If the market changes or your personal circumstances change and you're forced to sell, you could lose money" if you made little or no down payment. The equity in your home can also give you an extra source of cash in an emergency."

Peace Out - 3C

Cuyahoga County Housing Trends: A Lakewood Update

We have almost six months of statistics available so we can begin to examine housing trends for 2007 in Lakewood. Here are the stats from January 1st to the present:

Sold Since January:
186 Single Family Homes
48 Condos
44 Multi Family Homes

On The Market Now:
391 Single Family Homes
144 Condos
216 Multi Family Homes

What about prices and amenities on these homes for sale? Example: You can buy a 4 BR colonial on Parkwood with one full bath and two half baths, central a/c, a garage, an updated kitchen and a finished basement rec/play room for $148,900. How about a 4 BR 1 1/2 bath colonial with almost 1500 square feet of finished space, an updated kitchen, landscaped yard, formal dining room, a finished basement and third floor for $124,000 on Lauderdale. Yes you can now find homes in move in condition in Lakewood for less than $130k.

Lakewood has always been a destination of choice because of the vibrant business district, parks, City services, First Time Home Buyers Program and quick access to Downtown Cleveland.

On the Lakewood News Front: Architect Robert Stern's work on the Main Branch of the Lakewood Public Library is now complete and it is now once again open to the public. You can see photos of it on the WKYC news site here. It was a 38,000 square foot expansion. They doubled the parking spaces although that is still not a huge amount of parking. But it's certainly on the bus line, and I have always been impressed with their stats on the huge numbers of people who walk there every day. Reading, luckily, is not a thing of the past.

Btw, one thing that made me smile on the Library website? You can now send cool postcard ecards from the website. Peace Out- 3C

Real Estate and LIfestyles: Money Magazine's 2006 Top Ten Places to Live

We have been talking a lot on Cleveland blogs (OK everyone everywhere is talking!) about what we need in Cuyahoga County and Cleveland in order to feel the economic and Sense of Place vibrancy we all crave. I thought it might be helpful to look at this 'best' list. CNN/Money did a poll and Househunt.com reports the findings. Here is their Top Ten Places To Live List:

1. Fort Collins, Colorado
2. Naperville, Illinois
3. Sugarland, Texas
4. Columbia/Ellicott City, MD
5. Carey, NC
6. Overland Park, KS
7. Scottsdale, AZ
8. Boise, ID
9. Fairfield, CT
10. Eden Prairie, MN

There were commonalities and differences, but a few things stood out: all ten economies are vibrant, job growth is up, the population is diverse (including the fact that not everyone is rich or poor) and there is an affordable housing stock as well as a higher priced mix. Most of these places also had a population that averaged around 125,000 residents.

**They all seemed to be just far enough away from metropolitan areas, but yet close enough to get there quickly. For example, Fort Collins is one hour away from Denver or one hour away from Cheyenne Wyoming. And Naperville is only 28 miles West of Chicago (hats off to Naperville, I know two wonderful agents there, Eileen Landau and Angus Woodbury).

**They had 'perks' - a strong educational community, home sale prices going up not down, and a biggie, job growth. Yes, I know I mentioned it twice.

**They all seem to offer a lot of green space, recreational areas, rivers, lakes, mountains, depending on their location. So as the House Hunt Inc. site points out, they have the best of both worlds. Fort Collins boasts an average of 300 days a year of sunshine.

One thing I found odd and I have to put it here. Naperville Illinois was voted most 'kid friendly' city in 2006 by Zero Population Growth. Isn't that sort of an oxymoron??? Maybe my Naperville friends Eileen or Angus can explain it to me :-)

So I guess we don't need much to get on this list! We certainly have the green space; our Emerald Necklace alone is unbeatable. We have the affordable housing stock. We have a diverse population; we were voted one of the most literate cities so we can compete with these ten cities on good library systems. We have the higher education community a lot of people would love to have in their cities. The biggest weak link I see for NE Ohio (besides the sunshine.... does Fort Collins really get 300 days a year? That would be wonderful I have to admit) is jobs.

Peace Out - 3C

National and Cleveland May Home Sale Statistics + New Tax Abatement in Shaker

May is one of those 'go to' months when predictors well, start predicting based on first quarter results and May is a big real estate sales month. This Market Watch report talks about the high inventory of homes on the market Nationwide, but also talks about May sales being stronger than expected.

Just a Cleveland stat: during the month of May, 157 homes and condos sold in all west side Cleveland areas (these stats reflect sales listed with brokerages). Here is a comparison for sales in May in all of these areas for other years:

May 2006 = 164
May 2005 = 151
May 2004 = 185
May 2003 = 155

Peace Out - 3C


As an aside, the City of Shaker Heights applied with the State of Ohio to offer tax abatement. You can look on the City website here and get the details.

Budget Director Says Ohio Budget Shortfall Rests on Shoulders of Housing Market?

To me it's a 'chicken and egg thing.' The second biggest reason mentioned is the slow job market. I could be wrong, but in most cases I think you need a job in order to buy a house. The Columbus Dispatch did an article on Budget Dir. Sabety's remarks.

We kvetch about the brain drain and a good program was established to establish a State scholarship fund for students entering science, technology, engineering or mathematics (STEM). It was scheduled to start receiving monies ($50 mil) this coming school year and now that might not happen. Again I think about how serious this is. We are $167 million short in our state budget; we need jobs to counter the problem; we need students to excel in fields of study like the STEM areas and the budget shortfall might keep us from beginning this program that encourages our grads to stay here. It might just be Catch 22 and not the chicken and the egg dilemma. Does all of this make you a bit subdued? I find myself reacting that way.

Go to the Kent State website; you will see them announcing a 2007 STEM scholarship program in geology, computer science, etc. Maybe someone out there can tell me if this is a separately funded program that can still move forward in 2007?

Back to the Budget woes and housing. "....Sabety told Legislators that the “key driver” in the lower tax revenue estimates is the housing market..." And then there is the large amount of inventory (homes listed for sale) in most of our communities.

This is not just a City of Cleveland and inner ring suburb issue. We have a house listed in Strongsville. We have spoken to agents from other companies who have homes listed in this same subdivision. No showings, at least not more than one or two a month. And between the four of us (agents in different companies) we have homes in different price ranges and the price differences are not making anyone look at the homes. One clue could be that there are 352 single family homes for sale in Strongsville as of today (I am speaking of the ones listed by brokers on the MLS computer listing service).

Some other communities: Shaker Heights, 394; 279 in Medina; 302 Old Brooklyn/South Hills/Memphis Road. Garfield Heights is a community very hard hit for about six months (at least) now with predatory lending and foreclosure issues (although no one is spared really). In the Winter Garfield Hts. was averaging over 600 homes on the market (single family) and as of today there are still 503 listed. Folks, this is a huge amount of inventory that can take months to absorb. I have been really busy with buyers the last four to six weeks. But we don't have enough buyers for even the 2,878 homes I mentioned in the communities above.

Sometimes I feel like going to Frederick Maryland or Tyson's Corner Virginia or NYC with a sandwich board on my body that says please relocate your business to Cleveland - you won't be sorry.

Jobs would help. Students dying to fill jobs in STEM areas would attract jobs, I know it. What are the solutions to the Budget Shortfall? Peace Out - 3C

Manufactured Homes Go Green and Upscale?

Housingzone.com did an interesting piece on pre-fab housing. For those of us who take a snooty approach to pre-fab (and yes, I like the old historic homes better aesthetically), the article points out some reasons why the market for pre-fab is increasing.

1. Fresh designs. To me that means more than just the look of the exterior. Think about how people use extra bedrooms for offices, dens, game rooms. Think about how a Great Room or Family Room off the kitchen has turned into a practical and desirable floor plan for families or those who love to entertain. The small parlour/living room combination has been transplanted with this style. Pre-fab homes are offering ways to meet these new needs and apparently the public is buying it.

2. Designs that appeal to more upscale consumers. The old standard of a manufactured home only being a low to moderate income home design of lower quality does not hold true anymore. As one builder said in this article "....[perceptions] that are rooted in past decades when the industry kept costs low at the expense of good design...." are gone.

3. Environmental and energy concerns. Environmentally friendly construction materials and green housing standards are being met now with many pre-fab builders. As a side note, you can look at homes made of steel instead of wood framing, which is a big plus in areas that experience a lot of nature's wrath. Steel also gives you more square footage to play with inside the home since there are less 'interior room' structural supports needed.

They claim their biggest market is baby boomers, not that this is surprising since there are so many of us lol. Anyway, to read the entire article, go here. Peace Out - 3C

Westlake, Fairview, Shaker Heights, South Euclid Home Sales 2005-2007 Comparison

These again, are Realtor®/Broker sales. I'm comparing 2005, 2006 and 2007 sales averages from January to May 27th. This time it's Westlake, Fairview, Shaker Heights and South Euclid.

Westlake: 2007: 107 Homes and Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $281,667. The Average Sale Price was $268,986. Average days on the market before selling was 84.

2006: 156 Homes and Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $ 271,615. The Average Sale Price was $260,677. Days on the market for these homes was an average of 86.

2005: 159 Homes and Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $274,836. The Average Sale Price was $265,625. Days on the market averaged out at 77.

So a fairly stable housing market in Westlake. The total number of sales is down but the ones that are selling are holding close to sale prices of a few years ago. I'm going to let you all interpret the rest lest I become one of those talking heads I see on television and yell at!

Fairview: 2007: 74 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $159,723. The Average Sale Price was $153,010. Days on the Market: 80.

2006: 87 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $148,983. The Average Sale Price was $144,424. Days on the market: 65.

2005: 86 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was 161,833. The Average Sale Price was $156,288. Days on the market: 74.

Shaker Heights: 2007: 96 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $245,801. The Average Sale Price was $230,156. Days on the market: 96.

2006: 121 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $275,251. Average Sale Price was $265,408. Days on the market: 99.

2005: 146 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $251,363. Average Sale Price was $242,613. Days on market: 81.

South Euclid: 2007: 114 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $125,090. The Average Sale Price was $122,154. Days on the market: 92.

2006: 134 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $127,511. Average Sale Price was $123,583. Days on the market: 75.

2005: 136 Homes or Condos Sold. Average Ask Price was $131,812. Average Sale Price was $128,495. Days on the market: 82.

Peace Out-3C

Cuyahoga County Housing Trend Reports

I see a lot of people in my Cleveland neighborhood doing home repairs: new siding, roofs, windows. I wondered if they are planning on selling their homes or just doing due diligence and making them look better/be more energy efficient. I headed to the computer listing service we use as Realtors® and searched some statistics. This service (NORMLS) is updated through the end of the prior month - in this case, April.

So what has been happening since January 1, 2007? Here is some data (single family or SF- homes only this time):

Brecksville: there are 92 homes on the market; 125 have been listed for sale since January. The average sale price for a SF home was $281,924. 48 homes sold. They were on the market about 75 days and the sellers got 94.29% of their asking price, on average.

Bay Village: there are 134 homes on the market; 172 newly listed for sale since January. 52 SF homes have sold since January. The average sale price was $249,918. They were on the market about 91 days on average. And sellers for these homes received about 93.71% of their asking price.

Shaker Heights: there are 371 SF homes for sale; 451 of these homes have been listed since January. 65 SF homes have sold. The average sale price was $210,292. They were on the market about 86 days before they sold. And the sellers of these homes received about 94.15% of their asking price.

Lakewood: 328 SF homes are for sale in Lakewood now. 493 were newly listed since January. 131 homes sold. Their average sale price was $147,647. These homes were on the market for about 96 days before they sold. Sellers received about 95.27% of their asking price on these homes.

What about Cleveland? Okay, here is my neighborhood - where all that home repair work has the streets buzzing.

West Side of Cleveland From Brookpark Road North to Lorain Avenue, East to W. 117th and West to W. 140th.

There are 428 homes for sale now. There were 117 sold since January. There were 467 new listings since January. The average sale price was $90,013 and these sold homes were on the market about 79 days. Sellers of these homes received about 94.49% of their asking price.

The key finding in these results is a change in the average listing price to sale price. Historically, sellers have been receiving 3% of their asking price in NE Ohio. The neighborhoods I studied showed that to have changed. I would say 5% of asking price is closer to reality based on these stats. Why would that be?

1. Could be harder to convince sellers to accept that the market value of their home is not what it was three years ago.

2. Could be that homes on the market needed work and that came 'off' the asking price when a contract agreement was reached.

3. It's a buyer's market. I'm as tired as you are of hearing that phrase. But with so much competition, sellers are more willing to negotiate on their prices.

Peace Out - 3C

Could We Use Moderately Priced Dwelling Units (MPDUs) In NE Ohio?

As a Realtor®, it's easy to be made aware of all the newly planned or just being built housing developments in our area. One of the frustrating aspects of all that has been the price points. $300k seems to be the standard for new town homes for example. There is one architecturally fabulous exception being built in Tremont (Starkweather Place...contact me if you are interested). For the most part we seem to have new housing going up that no one can afford -- or barely afford as long as there is tax abatement.

When I lived in Maryland I was impressed with Montgomery County's Moderately Priced Dwelling Unit (MPDU) program. For any new development in Montgomery County the developers of that project were required to set aside about 12% of the units as moderately priced homes. They allow people who meet certain residency requirements to enter a lottery and get on a list to own one of these lower priced units. This was a model program started in the 1970s. Of course, their home price points went through the roof so their moderately priced homes now would be way above what most of us could afford. But I really think it's an idea that our Planning Commission could explore.

The Center for Housing Policy issued a report called New Century Housing (it's in pdf format and 54 pages but a quality explanation of the idea) This next report was issued by the League of Women Voters in Montgomery County and it gives a further explanation and history of MPDUs there. This report explained that you were required to have MPDUs if your development was 35 units or larger. I did not remember that part. Anyway, curious to know what others think about this idea.

When I first moved out of Cleveland in the early '70s to attend college and make my way in the world, Ohio City was just being 'pioneered,' if I can call it that. I knew people who knew people and they were involved in starting the Call and Post, and trying to revitalize the area. But revitalize it in an inclusionary way. Manager Mark (my manager) has lived in Ohio City for years and years, and I was fascinated with his recounting of the mission and passion of Ohio City residents who did not just want 'rich' people in the neighborhood, but original residents as well.

When I look at some of the development occurring elsewhere, I still see 300k price points. And in fact, Ohio City sports quite a few new town home and condo complexes in that price range -- and higher. But there are still homes to be bought under $200k or less. In fact we are under contract (a client and I) on a home closer to 120k that exemplifies all the character of Ohio City architecture.

A lot of cities are experiencing a housing crisis because people can't afford to downsize when they need to, or even buy their first homes. I think our area could use an MPDU or AHU (Affordable Housing Unit) plan because some of us just are not interested, even if we can afford it, in putting all of our available monies into homes that cost over 300k. I guess I will get off my soapbox for now lol. I am slightly optimistic that the downtown development plans seem to be going in the direction of mixed use development and I am hoping that idea will take off as well. Here is the National Association of Home Builders take on Mixed Use. Here is the Wikipedia explanation of it. Do you like either of these ideas? Peace Out - 3C